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How To Make Your Own Forecast
This is a method by which you can make your own forecast using two sliders: The Popularity slider and the Opposition Unity slider.
The forecast can be made only for the main party/alliance at the centre (NDA) or in a state (for example, YSRC in Andhra Pradesh and UPA in Punjab). To simplify the process for you, when you select a state for forecast, you will find that the main party has been preselected.
Two factors affect the number of seats the main party wins.
- The popularity of the main party (% votes the main party wins)
- How united the opposition is to that main party. Opposition Unity is measured by the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU) which ranges from 100 (fully united opposition - a straight two party fight) to 0 (totally disunited opposition).
The main party wins more seats if its popularity increases and/or the opposition to it is less united.
How Your Forecast Sliders Work
Step 1
POPULARITY SLIDER
If you believe that the main party is more popular (in terms of votes) than in the previous election, move the slider to the right and for less popular to the left. The further you slide it in either direction, popularity ratings will increase or decrease accordingly.
Step 2
OPPOSITION UNITY SLIDER
If you believe that the opposition is more united than in the previous election, move the slider to the right and for less united to the left. The further you slide it in either direction, opposition unity will increase or decrease accordingly.
Step 3
YOUR FINAL SEAT FORECAST
Once you have selected your slider positions for the main party’s popularity and for opposition unity, your seat forecast will be automatically calculated for you by deKoder and AI